This might now give rise to serious worries.
A study published on Tuesday suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an important system of ocean currents that carries warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic, could collapse by the middle of the century or possibly at any time beginning in 2025 as a result of human-caused climate change.
The environment and weather in the US, Europe, and other regions might quickly change as a result of such a collapse. If that occurred, the East Coast might experience hurricanes and storms that are more powerful, an ice age in Europe, a rise in sea level in cities like Boston and New York, and an increase in sea level.
The study’s authors speculate that it might also cause the central and western United States to experience noticeably less rain and snowfall.
Studies on the AMOC collapse have been compared to the 2004 disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow,” which used an incorrect ocean circulation shutdown as a plot device.
According to the current emission scenario, the study’s authors predict that the AMOC will collapse around the middle of this century.
The AMOC collapse is one of a number of dangerous climate “tipping points” that scientists think are likely as a result of climate change.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, according to Niklas Boers, a German researcher with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, is one of the planet’s major circulation systems.
Ocean water and air are carried by the AMOC to produce weather. Warm, salty water from the tropics flows north through the Gulf Stream to the North Atlantic, where it cools, sinks, and then flows south off the East Coast of the United States.
As it moves more quickly, more water is transported from the warm surface to the cooler depths.
The cycle cools the ocean off the coast of North America and keeps northern Europe’s temperature higher than it would be otherwise.
The AMOC may implode at some point this century, according to studies done in 2018 and 2021.
Researchers used new statistical methods and data on ocean temperature from the previous 150 years to determine that the AMOC will end with 95% certainty between 2025 and 2095.
Professor Susanne Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen and a co-author of the study said, “We’ve made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse is most likely to occur, something we had not been able to do before.
Observations of early warning signs that ocean currents exhibit when they begin to become unstable lend credence to the researchers’ prediction.
According to the calculations, a sudden change in the AMOC is “unlikely” to happen this century, contrary to the thesis of the most recent IPCC assessment.
“Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,” says study co-author Peter Ditlevsen, who is also from the University of Copenhagen. “.
The study’s co-authors, Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen, explained to USA TODAY how the AMOC might collapse as follows: “Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions hastens the melting of Greenland ice.
As a result, the melted freshwater entering the North Atlantic may disturb the AMOC, possibly resulting in significant climatic changes.
The Ditlevsens claimed that as Greenland’s enhanced meltwater increases, freshwater, which is lighter than the nearby salty seawater, is introduced into the North Atlantic. “This additional freshwater can obstruct saltwater’s natural ability to sink, weakening or even interrupting the AMOC. Due to the AMOC’s extensive effects on weather patterns and ocean currents, its collapse could cause significant climate changes.
Divergent opinions from experts who were not involved in the study have been expressed regarding its findings. Michael Mann, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said, “I’m not sure the writers contribute anything beyond a flashy statistical procedure. Numerous inaccurate predictions made in the past using sophisticated statistical methods—often too sophisticated for their own good—can be found.
Stefan Rahmstorf of the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, meanwhile, told USA TODAY that “a single study provides little data, but when many methodologies lead to comparable conclusions, this must be regarded very carefully.
especially when we’re discussing a risk that we really want to completely eliminate. The available scientific data even suggests that we may cross a tipping point within the next ten or twenty years.
The most recent study “adds to the evidence that the AMOC tipping point is much closer than we thought just a few years ago,” but there is still a lot of uncertainty about where it is.
